The Tunnel

Work has it blocked Paraphrase?

We need to make the move regardless of what fsu does or not the money is insane

"Virginia Tech fans have caught SEC fever.

I can see the early signs, the emails and Twitter messages are flooding in to OKTC, the same kind of early emails that started at Texas A&M and Missouri and slowly swept through the fanbases. Florida State's flirtation with the Big 12 has shown Virginia Tech fans the light, they want to be in the best conference in America. And now they're starting to make their voices heard.

One of the most fascinating things about conference expansion has been the extent to which it's driven from the bottom up as opposed to the top down. These aren't athletic directors and school presidents sitting on high making a decision about the future of their athletic programs and universities, these are fans, sitting in front of their computers, on Facebook, on Twitter, on talk radio, on message boards, driving up the interest amongst each other until the administration feels compelled to act.

It's conference realignment revolution.

Missouri fans got their team to the SEC. The administration was blown away by Mizzou's drive to leave behind the Big 12 and fans wouldn't take the status quo for an answer.

Ten years ago, before the power of social media to align interests, there's no way Mizzou would have taken the bold jump into a new Southern frontier.

But times have changed.

Individual fans are empowered in a way they never have been before.

And individual Virginia Tech fans have decided that if Florida State leaves the ACC, the Hokies belong in the SEC.

Especially with the coming SEC Network, which could debut as soon as 2014.

While most still haven't realized it, an SEC Network was the driving force behind the SEC's decision to add Texas A&M and Missouri.

How so?

A 12 team SEC had 20.8 million cable and satellite subscribers in its 9 state footprint, a 14 team SEC in 11 states has 30.3 million. By adding just two schools in two different states, Texas A&M and Mizzou, the SEC increased its overall cable and satellite subscriber base by nearly 50%.

That's why Missouri and Texas A&M will ultimately be worth at least $114 million a year to the SEC Network.

(Stop right now with your Longhorn Network talk, the SEC Network actually has games that fans will demand to see. How many games? Come 2014, ESPN retains the rights to every SEC game except the game of the week on CBS.

Also, stop with your why not Florida State or Clemson or Georgia Tech talk. The SEC already has those cable and satellite subscribers in its footprint. Having a team in the state, per Big Ten Network stats, increases the payout by ten times what not having a team does.)

So what are the Hokies worth a year to the coming SEC Network?

The state of Virginia has 2.8 million cable and satellite homes.

Figuring an SEC Network price of $1 a month -- a very conservative figure -- that means that Virginia Tech is worth $33.6 million a year to the league's television package.

That's just in television revenue and that's just right now, at the bargain basement cable and satellite price of $1 a month.

That price is low given what other regional sports networks presently charge. Per SNL Kagan figures Comcast SportsNet Washington brings in nearly $3.36 a month, tops among regional sports networks and New England Sports Network is a close second at $3.35 a month.

If the SEC Network brought in just $2 a month by 2024, a decade after its launch, you're talking about the state of Virginia being worth $67.2 million a year.

Indeed, the SEC will eventually expand to add teams in North Carolina and Virginia for a simple reason:

It's the math, stupid.

North Carolina has 3.2 million cable and satellite homes. That means having a team in North Carolina is worth $38.4 million to the SEC Network.

At just $1 a month, a 13 state SEC footprint with 16 teams would bring in $444 million a year.

That's just off cable subscriber fees in the 13 state footprint.

That doesn't include any revenue at all from advertising and it doesn't include any revenue at all for the network in the other 37 states, which would be substantial. You think college football fans in other states might want the SEC Network too?

(The SEC Network will be in partnership with ESPN, but it's an interesting question to think of how much of this money ESPN would receive. Right now ESPN pays the SEC around $150 million a year for its television rights. The SEC could schedule these payments to diminish each year until ESPN has no actual outlay for the content. That is, eventually ESPN would pay nothing for the content and simply pocket the proceeds via its ownership stake in the channel. So ESPN could take, say 15% of the profits, and actually end up being paid to carry the SEC. That is, ESPN could net around $50 million instead of paying out $150 million, a $200 million improvement.

What's more, thanks to its ownership stake in the channel, ESPN would be protected from the SEC leaving it behind come 2023-24 when the league's network rights come up for sale again.

Given that the college football playoff is currently coming up for bid this fall, replacing a fee payment with a profitable ownership stake could free up $200 million in additional cash for ESPN to spend on that playoff rights fee.

Since I'm projecting that the college football playoff will cost at least $500 million, that's money that ESPN may well need.

Put simply, now is the perfect time for the SEC to be negotiating with ESPN.)

At $444 million in yearly revenue that breaks out to $27.75 million a year per team. (I'm going to assume that the SEC could replace the 15% ESPN receives with at least that figure in yearly advertising and additional revenues from outside states).

So at a bare minimum a school like Virginia Tech would stand to make $10 million more a year in the SEC.

And here's where the money can really take off.

If cable and satellite subscribers are paying $2 a month in a decade, that's $888 million, or $55.5 million per school in television money.

Is $3 a month in 15 years out of the question? That's still less than Comcast SportsNet Washington gets right now.

How much would an SEC Network be worth at $3 a month?

Try $1.3 billion.

That's over $83 million per team.

Pure insanity.

But it's the math, stupid.

And fans aren't dumb.

They see that their favorite team can make a ton more money and play against the best teams in the country.

It's a no-brainer, even if the administration hasn't realized it yet.

Which is why Virginia Tech Hokie fans have caught SEC fever. "

Thanks

The internet is always right though. I dont understand.

Clay Travis is a huge SEC homer and his figures are most likely inflated, but an SEC Network will be worth a lot of money but not 80M a year to a school. I am guessing at the end of the day it would be closer to 35/40M. If the Pac 12 is reportedly getting 30M a school with an inferior product you better believe Slive will find a way to get the SEC past whatever the leader in the clubhouse is being paid.

If FSU and Clemson actually leave I think VT would be dumb to stay in a watered down ACC. If Swofford isn't forced out and can somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat (Notre Dame) then I would love to stay i the ACC. I just don't see the ACC as a viable football conference without FSU and Clemson. Time will tell.

Exactly what I was getting at.

I agree with regard to walking papers by the way. If Clemson and FSU bolt (and I don't think they're going to), unless Notre Dame somehow falls into our lap, it's best for both UVa and Tech to waive goodbye to the ACC.

If 1 of Clemson or FSU bolt, it is in our best interest to bolt to the SEC. Even if the ACC added ND it would still put them in a position where they need to find 2 more schools. There aren't 2 more football schools available so the ACC would be diluted even further.

Consider the source, the numbers, etc. etc. ... Think about it this way... At those figures for $3, if his figures are 40 MILLION OFF, that is still $43 million a year and $26 million more than Tech would make each season staying in the ACC.

problem is MD doesn't have a large fan base anymore.... if you haven't noticed they are in more financial shit than FSU. getting them wouldn't add VA, DC, maybe MD but their fans just aren't there anymore. they need to add a team in a good market that also has a strong fan base; UVA and MD aren't going to do it.

and yes the VA televisions carriers can add the SEC package just like NC has the Big 10 package but it needs a school who has fans in the area to watch it. thats why it needs the school.

yea they had talked about huge cuts in the AD. They had proposed to cut men's cross country, indoor track, outdoor track, tennis, and swimming and diving teams, as well as the women's acrobatics and tumbling, swimming and diving, and water polo teams, but i'm not sure which teams actually got the boot. its really a shame actually because they have some great facilities.

Did you read the article? If VT is worth that much, how much is Notre Dame worth in New York City? How much would an ACC Network that broadcasts Notre Dame games in NYC be worth? ACC is in the most populous regions in the US. Not saying this will come to fruition, but that is the argument and why ND is the big fish. Because they are the team of the Northeast.