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There will be no conference realignment until the outcome of Maryland leaving the ACC is decided. This is a business we are talking about, forget the education side of the realignment talks, IMO schools have shown that they will do what's best for the bottom line. In business if you have a test run for leaving the ACC in front of you, your going to see what that outcome is going to be. This makes decisions much easier from that standpoint. IMO if Maryland gets out with a lower exit fee, say around the 20-25 mil range, you could see some schools make a move, if it's up around the agreed to range then unless you have conferences wanting to loan/pay the exit fee. It is going to be very very difficult for any school to leave. Something could very well happen tomorrow, but my bet would be on this playing out after the lawsuit decision.
Attorneys could drag this out for years. That is what Maryland is counting on! They hope for one of two things: either this goes on for so long that the league has basically disbanded and there is no one left with the will to peruse; OR, this drags on until the attorneys recommend a compromise settlement (which is a lawyers favorite outcome). If this were to literally go to a legal conclusion with no compromise on either side, it could take 8 to 10 years. That time frame makes no sense and is unacceptable to the league and Maryland knows it. They are in the drivers seat on this one.
It just changes the calculation. Its a lock all these schools have done the NPV analysis to determine what the benefits will be of the move considering a $50M outlay. If the numbers project as it seems (lots of money for B1G and SEC not so much for ACC), I think that schools can still see positive returns despite the exit fee. Look at Maryland, the math made sense for them even without knowing if they could avoid the $50M exit fee.
Its nice information to have, but if the returns are positive, there is no need to wait. Then once you leave, the case for a lower exit fee gets stronger, and it would all be gravy at that point.
Maryland claims a reduced B1G payout to cover the exit fee,is higher than current and future ACC payout. GT is in the same position, and their athletic budget is in the red.
Yeah last I read Maryland is paying it back with there big 10 earnings. I'm sure they have done their NPV calculations too! But it's much more than just that. I see the court thing getting settled quick wvu did then everyone followed once the precedence is set things will roll!
It sounds like the ACC is taking a more firm stance on the exit fee than the Big East did.
Maryland has already demonstrated that the exit fee is irrelevant. i think many posters are undervaluing the partnership angle. who you hang out with is important. for VT and UVA, i also think its about making sure both are covered before either one leaves.
i think VT and UVA will both leave the when (1) it is obvious the ACC will fold and (2), both have good homes. wouldn't surprise me if they both eventually announce on the same day
also do not discount the possibility that TV contracts could get re-done and reshape all of this. is it in ESPN's best interest for the ACC to dissolve? Not a whole lot of college football on from Jan to March
The loss of a bunch of teams like a dominoe effect will cause the exit fee harm IMO. Each school will use the damaged product theme. Would be tree. Well dunno if losing MD killed much of anything. IF GT leaves this week I predict total dominoe effect. Those leaving would go together against any ACC lawsuit.
Exactly. If 1-2 more teams leave the ACC, it will be argued that TV revenues, competition, et al is no longer viable and the "exit fee" will have no teeth...
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